Shane Rhyne

I cannot resist sharing my love of useless political data. I’m no Nate Silver, nor do I usually pretend to be one, but here are a few stats I couldn’t help but share after reviewing the results from Thursday’s elections as posted by Secretary of State Tre Hargett.

As a side note, have I mentioned that Tre and I were pals in our college days at Memphis State University of Memphis and campaigned and served together in Student Government Association? I served in the presidential cabinet for two administrations as he served in the legislative branch and eventually the presidency. I wonder if can get him to pay me not to post the pictures of those days. (I kid. I kid.)

Though I live on the other side of the aisle, I was most interested in little nuggets of information from the GOP gubernatorial primary in Tennessee. First of all, did odd pop culture phenomenon Basil Marceaux, Sr.– featured regularly on Jimmy Kimmel’s and Stephen Colbert’s televison shows in the days before the vote– have any effect on the outcome?

No, he didn’t. Did you really think he would?

In fact, Basil garnered just a little more than 3,500 votes statewide, finishing fifth in a five person race. Technically, he finished fifth in a four-man race as fourth-place Joe Kirkpatrick had withdrawn from the race some time before the election and endorsed Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey.

I did break it down by counties (’cause that’s how I roll) and noted that Basil did manage to finish in fourth place in 14 of Tennessee’s 95 counties. (Yes, 95 counties. That’s a discussion for a later date.)

How close did Basil come to causing any of the three major candidates any embarrassment? Technically, he’d be hard-pressed to embarrass Wamp and Ramsey any more than they already embarrassed themselves during the campaign. (Secession? Suspension of the Freedom of Religion clause? Really?)

Basil came closest to scoring a third place finish in rural and lightly-populated Polk County (est. 15,648), finishing 101 votes behind third-place Ron Ramsey. In Bledsoe County (est. 12,967), Basil trailed Lt. Gov. Ramsey by only 107 votes. Otherwise, he usually wasn’t very close.

I don’t yet know what it means, but I did note that in 12 of the 14 counties where Basil scored a fourth place finish, Lt. Gov. Ramsey took the bronze medal in those counties. The two outliers were Cannon and Davidson where Wamp claimed third place.

Since both Wamp and Ramsey claimed third place in 47 different counties each, I thought it was an interesting anomaly that Basil’s biggest “successes” (if we can call them that) came in counties where the Lt. Gov. had a weak showing.

Other useless stats:

• Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, the eventual nominee, claimed victory in 75 of Tennessee’s 95 counties. Actually, he claimed victory in 75.5 counties, as he and Lt. Gov. Ramsey finished in a 1st place tie in Carter County.
• Rep. Zach Wamp won 15 counties. 13 of those counties were either in East Tennessee or on the Cumberland Plateau. Wamp did win two rural West Tennessee counties– Decatur and the very interesting Henderson County (more on Henderson in a moment).
• Ramsey won 4.5 counties (including the Carter County tie), all of which were near his East Tennessee home base, except for Middle Tennessee’s Moore County.
• Each candidate won his home county: Knox (Haslam), Hamilton (Wamp), Sullivan (Ramsey)
• Bill Haslam finished either 1st or 2nd in 94 of the 95 counties. The lone holdout was Henderson County. Zach Wamp won this county with 40.5% of the vote, followed by Ramsey with 29.3%. Haslam only generated 28.4% of the vote in Henderson County.
• Lt. Governor Ramsey claimed second place in 43 counties to 33 for Wamp. Haslam finished second in 18 counties. (Carter County with a first place tie, technically had no second place candidate.)
• While Ramsey had more second place finishes, Wamp’s second place finishes were usually in more populous counties. Thus, Wamp finished second in the overall popular vote.
• Wamp and Ramsey took the bronze medal in 47 counties each with Haslam finishing outside the top two only once.
• Haslam’s narrowest victory over Wamp was by 29 votes in Van Buren County.
• Haslam’s narrowest victory over Ramsey was by 56 votes in Houston County.
• Wamp’s narrowest victory over Haslam was a six vote win in Clay County.
• Ramsey’s narrowest victory over Haslam was by 16 votes in Moore County.
• Wamp’s only victory over Ramsey in a 1-2 finish was by 311 votes in Henderson County.
• Wamp’s Congressional District overlapped into Knoxville metropolitan counties. Races in some of these counties were neck-and-neck. Haslam won neighboring Anderson and Roane Counties (both counties are home to Oak Ridge and much of the federal funding Wamp claimed responsibility for bringing to the area) by less than 100 combined votes.

What does it all mean? Probably absolutely nothing. Haslam did win counties in every one of Tennessee’s grand divisions. Wamp did best in and around his home county (Hamilton) and in counties in or bordering his Congressional district. Ramsey, as expected, did well in rural counties, in counties near his home base, and near Nashville where his role as Lt. Gov. gave him name recognition.

I do wonder if the Haslam team will be making any campaign visits to Henderson County before the general election to improve on his one poor showing among Tennessee’s 95 counties? I hear the International Possum Festival in October is the place to be in Parkers Crossroads.

About Shane Rhyne

I wear many hats in my personal and professional life. I am a public relations professional, writer, and social media advocate. I blog about topics of interest to me professionally and personally. Connect with me on Google+

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